Monday, October 14, 2013

Baby Hope

None of the seven people living in that Queens, NY apartment stepped forward to report the little girl's disappearance, so perhaps the "hope" was more in the eyes of the media. Even minority children from slum areas when killed at very young ages are never described in the media as likely to have grown up to become a drug addict or violent criminal.

Now it looks like some pervert and murderer will get free food and free medical care for the rest of his life.

When will the taxpayers be the ones who have any hope?

Friday, September 20, 2013

Charlotte police kill unarmed ex-FAMU football player.

Charlotte police kill ex-FAMU football player.

No report from anyone of a weapon being used.
No weapon displayed.
Each hand clearly empty.
THREE officers on scene.
One fired a Taser... almost certainly unlawfully, yet clearly indicating no need for deadly force to be used.
Two fired live ammunition at a then stationary person screaming "wait, wait" as he saw red dots on his chest and held up his empty hands.

Why didn't they wait.
What were they afraid of?

There was absolutely no indication that the deceased person knew the cops had donuts in the car when they fired their weapons in defense of the donuts.

It seems the Police Department has been criticized for promptly filing criminal charges rather than letting the police get their stories straight but I see no reason for unnecessary delay.

No weapon. No report of a weapon. An excited motorist? Yes. He had just been involved in a serious auto accident. It tends to make people excited. The police are expected to be able to deal with excited or agitated individuals...but then again, that is just what the police did in this case.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

No readers.

Well, I guess I have few, if any, readers.
Perhaps that should be a viewed as a good thing. I do not know. This day is less and less difficult for me.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Do I Have Any Readers, At All?

Anyone want this blog to continue? If you from time to time read it feel free to comment below.

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

New Data? New Hope? ... New Money?

It still stands that the S/V Nina is well overdue and has not been spotted despite search flights both publicly and privately directed.

Catastrophic event: Who knows. There was no debris of any sort and most yacht sinkings gush forth a variety of cushions, pillows and galley debris but the main thing is the location and date of any such event and that is unknowable.

EPIRB: Known to be aboard and known to be of an older model. Did it not get turned on or did it not get removed from its mounting bracket? How difficult would it be to free the EPIRB and activate it if the vessel had capsized or pitch-poled? Crew would know vessel is clearly an object of a search by now and would activate the EPIRB if able. So perhaps the EPIRB was never deployed or perhaps it simply failed to send out a signal for some reason. I believe two of the crew were more vagabonds than sailors did they not know to turn it on prior to deploying it.

Lack of communications: Satphone and Spot beacon each silent.

Type of difficulty: Unknown. Can not allocate any priority amongst: Dismasted, Capsized, Loss of Keel, Collision, Pitch poled, Abandoned. No way to know that if Abandoned, the crew successfully took to the life raft. Its possible to stow the EPIRB in the life raft and then have the life raft ripped away from the crew's desperate grasp.

Location of difficulty: Unknown. Could be immediately after attempting to send final message. Could be several days of bare-poled sailing on last mentioned course.

Primary effect on survivors: Unknown. Could be wind, current, waves, depending on freeboard and drag coefficients.

Significant prior SAR events: NZRCC was unable to track an 11 meter steel-hulled yacht despite such a structure being a prime candidate for both radar and thermal searching. NZRCC does not seem to review AIS data for possible impact nor plot shipping lanes in search area determinations. Drift modeling varies greatly with no model having any particularly history of accuracy.

Costs: Expenditure of funds is always a factor. Many SAR missions are smuggling interdiction flights that would be flown anyway though perhaps with different sensors selected or at different altitudes. Donated funds are assumed to have been donated despite bleak circumstances and so may be spent free of guilt in comparison to other searches.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

S/V Nina Time and Tide.

We know that the Nina was Dancing With A Gale and finding her dance partner not particularly to her liking. I would not want to characterize the Nina's contacts with the volunteer meteorologist as acts of desperation but it does bespeak a certain urgency of purpose. Clearly the electronics were not working too well since the final text was never sent. If at 6:00pm the Nina were still afloat her electronics may have deteriorated even more. It seems spray would be the first thought at to cause though I do imagine there could well be other reasons for signal strength to be so close to background noise that the message would not be sent.

Shipping lanes and known AIS signals have never been plotted, this seems strange. Later storms have not been plotted for the correct area. A number of events could have taken place that would have allowed little time for deployment of the EPIRP but one wonders: these were experienced blue water sailors, they had life lines, life vests, knives.

Experienced blue water sailors, with two inexperienced deckhands aboard, would still know to go over emergency procedures and would have focused their attention on freeing the EPIRB from its bracket and turning it on. There would have been lifelines tied to all aboard though the wise sailor always has a knife to cut his lifeline if he really and truly needs to. Loss of the garboards, the strakes closest to the keel, has been suggested though no particular reason has ever been given. This catastrophic event would have capsized the Nina, possibly flooding it first. Even at nighttime there would have been time for the EPIRB before people started severing their life lines and hoping to get to a life raft.

How securely are life rafts stowed? No use losing it just before you need it but usually they do have quick release mechanisms of some sort.

French satellite data might be more useful than commercial satellite data, particularly since France and New Zealand have rather strained relations. RCCNZ had a poor record with a search for an eleven meter steel hulled sloop yet this would be an excellent radar and thermal signature for search missions.

We all remember the Norwegian sailboat that made it from Bermuda to Ireland without ever being spotted despite various Coast Guard and satellite searches. They never turned on their radio so as to save the battery strength and altered course slightly due to initial storm damage in Bermuda waters. It was a small boat in a big ocean. The Nina, on the other hand, has an EPIRB and is well over due by now, so there is little real expectation that she is still afloat even if capsized.

Saturday, July 20, 2013

NZRCC and International Cooperation

Regarding the S/V Nina:

Most rescue coordination centers merely make use of military assets such as a P3 Orion long-range submarine patrol plane. The exact equipment aboard is not revealed. Now, I will admit there are not very many submarines approaching New Zealand with hostile intent. Its been a long time since the French paid a few visits to New Zealand in preparation for the voyage of Rainbow Warrior.

The long range marine surveillance flights are conducted for military purposes but the major effort right now is smuggling interdiction: drugs and refugees from the poverty and political instability in the area. Even with drugs, a good portion of the drugs smuggled into New Zealand waters are merely transshipped to richer markets in Australia. All nations wish to protect their fisheries and marine economic zones from premature depletion or fouling by ships that violate the laws of the sea.

Some searches for submersibles requires looking almost directly downward whereas searching for a dis-masted yacht is often done from an oblique angle. Searches can be in different areas of the spectrum so as to enhance contrasts.

The major point is that only a small portion of the Orion capabilities will be known to the RCC and a far smaller fragment of that information will ever be released by it.

Raw data from radar scans are unlikely to be shared. Algorithms for drift induced by winds or currents are not likely to be shared.